Australian home values are now falling faster than in any downturn in the past 40 years. Cotality's national Home Value Index dropped 1.2% in October — the seventh monthly fall in a row — and now sits 6.7% below its March peak. That's roughly $63,400 wiped off the median Australian home in seven months. 1
The capital cities are worse: down 8.1% in seven months. The biggest peak-to-trough fall on record is the 2017–19 downturn at 8.2%, so that record is now just 0.1 percentage points away. "It looks like we're easily going to push past that mark," Cotality's head of research Gerard Burg told the ABC. 1
Our last update covered Domain's September-quarter numbers. This one uses the October data released today and last weekend's auctions, which were worse.
Sources were published 30 October – 2 November 2026. Cotality's index covers the month to 31 October. Auction figures are for the weeks ending 25 October (final) and 1 November (preliminary). The image is an AI-generated illustration of a Brisbane street, not a real property.
The speed is the scary part
Burg's comparison is the headline: over the same seven months, the 2022–23 downturn took capital-city values down 7.0%, and the record-setting 2017–19 downturn had fallen only 1.2%. This one is down 8.1%. 2
Cotality calls it "a demand-led downturn". Four rate rises this year have cut borrowing power, the Budget's investor tax changes have pushed investors back, and buyers have gone quiet. 1
City by city: Brisbane has taken over as the biggest faller
Here are Cotality's October figures as reported by the ABC. 1
| Market | October | Quarter | Annual | Median value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane | −2.0% | −6.1% | +0.4% | $1,018,401 |
| Perth | −1.7% | −5.7% | +3.9% | $942,018 |
| Sydney | −1.6% | −4.7% | −9.4% | $1,178,959 |
| Adelaide | −1.2% | −3.9% | +3.7% | $916,860 |
| Melbourne | −0.8% | −2.7% | −7.6% | $773,027 |
| Canberra | −0.7% | −3.1% | −3.7% | $844,400 |
| Hobart | +0.5% | −0.3% | +5.5% | $743,854 |
| Darwin | +0.6% | −0.2% | +9.7% | $641,873 |
| Combined capitals | −1.4% | −4.5% | −4.8% | $954,905 |
| National | −1.2% | −3.9% | −2.8% | $884,855 |
Three things stand out:
- Brisbane's boom has fully reversed. After leading the country through 2025, it lost 6.1% in a single quarter. Its annual change is now almost flat at +0.4%.
- Sydney is down 9.4% over the year. Sydney values are now 1.5% lower than in October 2021, so some owners there have five years of growth wiped out. 2
- Melbourne values are 7.3% lower than five years ago. Only Hobart and Darwin rose in October.
Cotality says virtually every suburb in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide lost value over the past three months. In Canberra, detached houses fell another 1.0% in October, and North Canberra (−6.0%) and Woden (−5.7%) are the weakest districts over 12 months. 3
Auctions: the worst run since COVID lockdowns
Auction clearance rates usually move before prices do, and anything under 60% points to a falling market. Right now, every capital except Melbourne is clearing well under 50%.
Final results, week ending 25 October (Cotality): 4
| Market | Final clearance rate | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Combined capitals | 43.6% | Down 4.0 pts in a week; lowest since late June |
| Melbourne | 50.2% | Highest capital; 831 auctions brought forward before Cup Day |
| Sydney | 41.7% | Down 8.7 pts despite more auctions |
| Adelaide | 35.3% | |
| Brisbane | 26.3% | Lowest in the country |
October averaged a 45.2% clearance rate, the weakest month of 2026. Back in February the rate was 66.4%. Brisbane averaged only about 25% across October, its softest result since April 2020. 5
Last weekend (preliminary, week to 1 November): the combined-capital clearance rate was 47.2% across 1,735 auctions, the weakest early figure since April 2020. Brisbane cleared just 26.2%. 6
Two more details show how wary sellers have become:
- Almost a quarter of scheduled auctions were withdrawn in the week to Saturday, compared with 11.2% a year ago. 7
- At Ray White, 42% of auctions held attracted no active bidder at all. Brisbane cleared just 16.2% across the group. 8
Preliminary rates usually revise down once late results come in, so don't compare this weekend's 47.2% preliminary figure with last week's 43.6% final as if they were the same measure.
Homes are sitting longer and selling for less
- Median time on market: 39 days, the longest since August 2020.
- Median vendor discount: 4.7%, the biggest since May 2019.
- Sales volumes over three months are 23% below a year ago, with Sydney down 30% and Brisbane down 29%.
- New listings are 18% below average, yet total capital-city listings are the highest for this time of year since 2019, because homes aren't selling. 2
"Despite this being a buyer's market, they are noticeably absent," Cotality research director Tim Lawless said. 9
Where to from here? The projections
Tomorrow (Cup Day): September's inflation figures came in hot. Headline inflation was 4.3% and trimmed mean 3.7%, and markets priced roughly an 85% chance of a fifth rate rise for the year. That would lift the cash rate from 4.60% to 4.85%. 2
Borrowing power: Cotality estimates another rise would take the cut to borrowing capacity across this rate cycle to about 11.5%, or more than $105,000. That is more than the $63,400 the median home has lost so far, so buyers can't afford more even though prices have dropped. 2
How deep: Domain's chief economist Nicola Powell says that with about 6% already gone, "a 10 per cent drop in price is quite possible". 1
How long: Burg and Powell both expect buyers to stay away until the RBA signals rate cuts, and Powell says that's unlikely "until the latter part of 2027". Cotality expects conditions to stay subdued through the rest of 2026 and into 2027. 1
The cushion: Unemployment rose to 4.7% in September, the highest since 2021, but the shortage of newly built homes and generally strong household equity should help prevent a free-fall. Perth would need to fall 20% from its peak just to return to mid-2025 levels. 2
What a 10% fall would look like (illustration only)
This is simple arithmetic, not a forecast. Starting from the March peak median of about $948,000 (today's $884,855 plus the $63,400 lost):
| Peak-to-trough fall | Implied national median | Total lost from peak |
|---|---|---|
| 6.7% (today) | ~$884,900 | ~$63,400 |
| 8.2% (2017–19 record) | ~$870,000 | ~$77,700 |
| 10% (Powell: "quite possible") | ~$853,000 | ~$94,800 |
| 15% | ~$805,800 | ~$142,200 |
What landlords and investors should check this week
- Your cash flow after a 4.85% cash rate. Add 0.25 percentage points to every variable loan and see if your rent still covers it. Our negative gearing calculator can show the after-tax cost.
- Your LVR on refinance. A lower valuation can trap you with your current lender. We cover this in the refinance trap.
- Your borrowing headroom before you buy. Lenders still test at around 3% above your rate. See how the APRA buffer works.
- Selling? Price to today's market. With 39-day selling times and 4.7% discounts, an auction price set on spring 2025 sales will probably pass in.
Track every property's value, loan and cash flow in one place with PropAlly, so you can see exactly where your portfolio stands as the market moves.
General information only, not financial advice. Figures are from the sources cited and may be revised.
