G'day.
Big week. The tax bill that has been hanging over investors since the May Budget is set to clear parliament in the next few days, the major banks have officially marked down their 2026 price forecasts, and the Greens have wedged in a new amendment that closes an SMSF property loophole. Here is what actually matters for your rental.
This week in Australian property
Negative gearing and CGT bill set to pass this week
On Monday the Greens confirmed they will support Labor's first tranche of tax reforms in the Senate this fortnight, meaning the bill becomes law before parliament rises. The headline changes — phased in from 1 July 2027 — are:
- Negative gearing restricted to one investment property per taxpayer for newly acquired assets. Existing portfolios are grandfathered.
- CGT discount reduced from 50% to 35% on new investor purchases (existing holdings keep the 50% discount).
- SMSF amendment (new): the Greens secured a change preventing self-managed super funds from acquiring residential property going forward, closing what they called a "wealthy investor loophole".
What this means for you: if you already own, you are grandfathered — keep your records clean to prove the acquisition date. If you were planning to buy a second (or fifth) investment property after July 2027, model it without the negative gearing offset and at the 35% discount before you commit. The maths is different, not broken.
Open the negative gearing calculator →
Westpac and CBA both cut 2026 price forecasts to flat
Within a fortnight of each other, Westpac (23 June) and CBA (4 June) downgraded their 2026 national dwelling price forecasts to flat. Both cite the same trio: higher cash rate, weaker buyer sentiment, and the Budget tax overhaul pulling forward investor exits.
Westpac's note specifically flags a "sharp and sustained withdrawal of investor demand from mid-2026" — i.e. now — as some investors try to crystallise gains under the 50% discount before grandfathering rules bite.
What this means for you: if you were counting on capital growth to do the heavy lifting for FY26, recheck your cashflow. Flat prices for 12 months means yield and tax efficiency are the only levers you have left.
Auctions: Sydney clearance hits a "failed auction" milestone
Reuters ran a piece this morning on a Bondi auction that drew zero bids — held up as a symbol of how fast sentiment has shifted. National clearance rates have been sitting around the low 50s post-Budget (down from high 60s in February).
What this means for you: if you're listing, expect longer days on market and more pre-auction offers. If you're buying, you have more leverage than you've had since 2023 — use it.
Quiet shift: investors pivoting to commercial
CommBank research flagged last week that the Budget changes are pushing some investors toward commercial assets (which keep the 50% CGT discount and full interest deductibility). Worth knowing if you're talking to a buyer's agent — the residential investor pool is genuinely shrinking, which affects your eventual exit.
What I'd actually do this week
- Pull your acquisition contracts for every property and store them somewhere you can find in 5 minutes. Grandfathering will hinge on contract date.
- Run your FY26 cashflow assuming flat capital growth. If it only works with 5%+ growth, that is a planning problem, not a market problem.
- If you're selling in the next 2 years, talk to your accountant about whether bringing the sale forward (pre-grandfathering clarity) makes sense. Don't act on a blog post — get the advice.
- EOFY is one week away. If you haven't done the EOFY checklist, do it Monday.
Founding-member beta still open
We're building PropAlly so that "pull every acquisition contract" is one click, not a Saturday afternoon. Founding-member beta is open until we hit 20 — 12 months of Pro, free, in exchange for 30 days of real use and a 30-min feedback call. Apply here.
— PropAlly, Brisbane
